Current Growth Trajectory May Delay $1tn Ambition To 2040–Adesugba

Nigeria may not achieve its ambition of becoming a $1tn economy until 2040 if it fails to accelerate economic growth and address structural challenges limiting productivity, former Managing Director and Chief Executive of the Nigeria Export Processing Zones Authority (NEPZA), Professor Adesoji Adesugba, has warned.

Adesugba gave the warning while delivering the 20th anniversary lecture of the Commerce and Industry Correspondents Association of Nigeria (CICAN) in Abuja.

He argued that Nigeria’s current growth trajectory was insufficient to achieve the Federal Government’s 2030 target.

According to him, the country would require annual economic expansion of approximately 28 per cent in dollar terms to reach the target within the next five years.

He said Nigeria’s economy was valued at between $285bn and $291bn in 2025, meaning it would have to more than triple in dollar terms to achieve the projected milestone by 2030.

Adesugba described the $1tn ambition as a target for mobilising national efforts rather than a guaranteed economic outcome, stressing that its achievement would depend on effective policy implementation.

“The $1tn economy is best understood not as a forecast but as a mobilisation target, and it will be won or lost on the quality of implementation rather than the quality of announcements,” he said.

He explained that if Nigeria sustained real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of between four and 4.5 per cent, alongside moderate inflation and gradual depreciation of the naira, the economy could reach about $450bn by 2030. Under that scenario, the $1tn target could be delayed until around 2040.

However, stronger real growth of six to seven per cent, combined with a relatively stable exchange rate, could lift the economy to approximately $585bn by 2030 and bring the $1tn milestone closer to 2034.

Even under a more optimistic scenario involving stronger growth and appreciation of the naira in real terms, he estimated that the economy could reach about $773bn by 2030.

The former NEPZA chief cautioned against relying on currency movements or nominal GDP figures to create the impression of economic progress without corresponding improvements in production, productivity and employment.

Adesugba, who is also the First Deputy President of the Abuja Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ACCI), warned that headline economic figures would have little meaning without a stronger productive base.

“A trillion-dollar economy built on a strong naira and weak factories would be a statistical achievement, not an economic one,” he said.

While acknowledging improvements in Nigeria’s macroeconomic indicators, Adesugba said the gains had yet to translate into sufficient investment in productive sectors.

He cited real GDP growth of 4.43 per cent in the second quarter of 2026, first-half growth of 4.16 per cent and a reduction in headline inflation to 14.63 per cent in September as signs of progress.

He also pointed to foreign exchange reserves of $55.25bn and a narrowing gap between official and parallel market exchange rates as evidence that economic reforms were delivering some stabilisation benefits.

However, he identified the composition of capital inflows, unreliable electricity supply and weak industrial expansion as major obstacles to achieving the $1tn target.

According to him, capital importation stood at $10.37bn in the first quarter of 2026, but foreign direct investment accounted for only $135.08m, representing 1.3 per cent of the total.

He added that approximately 73 per cent of the inflows went into the banking sector, while manufacturing received about 1.5 per cent and agriculture less than one per cent.

Adesugba distinguished between portfolio investments, which can support financial market stability, and foreign direct investment, which can establish factories, expand productive capacity and create jobs.

He warned that Nigeria could experience an outflow of some portfolio investments as interest rates decline unless improved economic conditions encourage longer-term investments in manufacturing, agriculture, mining, logistics and other productive industries.

Inadequate electricity supply, he said, was another major barrier to achieving the trillion-dollar ambition.

Although Nigeria had an installed national grid capacity of 13,625 megawatts, average available capacity was only 4,758MW in August 2026, forcing businesses to depend heavily on expensive alternative power sources.

“No economy of 220 million people has ever approached a trillion dollars on five gigawatts of grid power,” he said.

To address the challenge, Adesugba called for greater priority to be given to electricity sector reforms. He recommended improved gas-to-power arrangements, investment in transmission infrastructure, faster deployment of electricity meters and the development of state electricity markets under the Electricity Act 2023.

He said reliable and affordable electricity would be essential to expanding industrial production, improving business competitiveness and attracting investment into manufacturing.

Beyond economic growth, Adesugba stressed that the trillion-dollar ambition would have limited value if it failed to improve living conditions and reduce poverty.

Citing World Bank estimates, he said about 140 million Nigerians, representing 63 per cent of the population, lived below the national poverty line in 2025, while food inflation of nearly 20 per cent continued to weaken household purchasing power.

He argued that the government should complement the 2030 ambition with measurable economic benchmarks that would enable citizens and investors to assess progress.

Among the proposed milestones were an interim $500bn economy, sustained real GDP growth of at least six per cent, foreign direct investment accounting for more than 10 per cent of capital importation, reliable grid electricity availability of at least 8,000MW and a return to single-digit headline inflation.

He said these benchmarks would provide a more objective basis for assessing economic performance than relying on government announcements alone.

Adesugba also urged the Federal Government to maintain policy consistency through the 2027 electoral cycle, warning that policy reversals could undermine investor confidence and disrupt economic progress.

He called for better coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities, equitable implementation of the new tax laws, greater transparency in public revenue management and stronger participation by state governments in attracting investment.

He further advocated repositioning Nigeria’s special economic and free trade zones as centres for export-oriented manufacturing and value addition, with stronger links to opportunities under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

According to him, the private sector, financial institutions, labour unions, universities and development partners also had important roles to play through long-term financing, evidence-based policy advocacy, industry-focused research, skills development and investment in productive capacity.

On the role of the media, Adesugba proposed that CICAN introduce a quarterly tracker to independently monitor Nigeria’s progress towards the $1tn economy target.

He said the proposed platform should track indicators such as real GDP growth, the size of the economy in dollar terms, foreign direct investment, electricity availability, inflation, manufacturing output, employment and poverty levels.

He also recommended an economic reporting fellowship and an annual real economy forum to encourage sustained scrutiny of government policies and their impact.

Adesugba called for improved protection for journalists, timely access to official statistics and greater investment in specialist economic reporting, describing credible journalism as essential to public understanding, investor confidence and policy accountability.

He maintained that Nigeria’s success should not be judged solely by whether the economy reached $1 trillion in 2030 or several years later, but by its ability to sustain growth, create jobs and reduce poverty.

“Nigeria will not report its way to a trillion dollars. But it cannot get there without being reported honestly,” he said.

Earlier, CICAN Chairman Gabriel Kuma said the association’s 20th anniversary should renew its commitment to responsible, independent and courageous reporting on economic issues.

He urged government institutions and industry operators to improve transparency and engagement with journalists, while encouraging investment in specialist reporting to support national economic development.

Kuma said the ultimate test of the anniversary would be whether economic policies translated into improved living standards and the prosperity Nigerians expected, adding that the association was prepared to contribute to that objective.